Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
autant attaquer?

mercure a écrit :
> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
> autant attaquer?

? entendu aux news que le secteur auto US serait aidé ?

mercure a émis l'idée suivante :
> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
> autant attaquer?

================================================== ==============

Salut Mercure,

je ne comprends pas non plus.

1°) Renault SAS fait 1,4 M Euros de bénéfices au 1er semestre 2008,
et réalise des ventes à +3% par rapport à la même période 2007.
Malgré cela : projet de - 6000 salariés (4000 en FR, 2000 monde).

2°) Malgré cette annonce de plan de départs volontaires encouragés,
le titre RNO ne fait que sombrer.

Je n'y comprends rien, et suis donc friand de toutes infos.

Petit Pierre

Arcturus a utilisé son clavier pour écrire :
> mercure a écrit :
>> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
>> autant attaquer?
>
> ? entendu aux news que le secteur auto US serait aidé ?

oui, pour les 3 grands US.

L'ACEA (association des constructeurs européens automobile)
demandent une subvention de 35 ME pour recherche et industrialisation
de moteurs à très faible émission de CO2.
(Bien plus bas que les 120 g de CO2 par km).

Petit Pierre

mercure wrote:
> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
> autant attaquer?

Parce qu'en temps de disette, on peut toujours reporter de 18 mois
l'achat d'une nouvelle voiture (sauf a avoir casse l'ancienne et
avoir survecu, mais ca reste marginal).

Un commentaire pas directement lie a la crise actuelle. Mais il
apporte une vision interessante.

/////////////////////////////
Logistics in the automotive sector. On the margins of a crisis. 06/Oct/
2008

The global car industry is in crisis. Possibly the most severe crisis
it has been in for 50 years. Not only is it going through a period of
pressure on profitability that in any other sector would lead to
drastic consolidation but its technological fundamentals are
undergoing a transformation.

The evidence of that change is strongest in the US, where what used to
be called the 'Big Three' - Chrysler, Ford and General Motors - are in
the financial equivalent of intensive care. The US market has also
seen the most dynamic market for new types of vehicles. Once the
homeland of the V12 SUV, hybrid engine cars from Toyota and Honda are
now the most dynamic part of the US car market. The President of
Honda, Takeo Fukui, has said he expects more than 10% of Honda sales
worldwide to be hybrid vehicles, a total of 500,000 vehicles. That is
only part of a wider transformation in automotive technologies that
embraces new fuel sources, new materials and digital technology.

So what are the implications of all this change for logistics in the
automotive sector? So far very little, as the vehicle manufacturers
are still wedded to their traditional dominance of the supply chain.

Crisis in the supply chain

One of the key problems in the sector remains the crisis in the
automotive supply chain. A high proportion of automotive suppliers are
either bankrupt - such as Delphi - or have begun to grow away from the
sector - for example, Bosch. That has been driven by the endemic
unprofitability of the sector, the aggressive purchasing methods of
many of the vehicle manufacturers and the industry's low growth
prospects in key western markets.

Those problems are usually thought of as applying to component
suppliers. However, they equally apply to logistics service providers.
A good example of that in the logistics sector is Ryder. Once
dominated by big automotive customers such as General Motors and
Toyota, plant closures across the US have caused major challenges to
Ryder's Supply Chain Solutions business. The dramatic downsizing of
the automotive sector means that the electronics OEMs (original
equipment manufacturers) are becoming the driver of its business.

The issues for automotive logistics are not just restricted to
problems over price and growth. Rather, the way the vehicle
manufacturers approach logistics outsourcing and the opportunities
they offer logistics service providers is making the sector less
attractive.

Toyota is a good example. Increasingly unchallenged as the leader of
the automotive industry, the company has a tight grip on outsourcing.
In both North America and Europe, for example, the car manufacturer
has just completed the construction of its own finished vehicle
distribution system that includes a network of seven European port-
based 'vehicle distribution centres' which manage the inventory and
transport of its cars to dealerships. In the US, Toyota has even
created its own fleet of car-carrying trucks. For such a client, the
opportunities for 'added value' hankered after by the big LSP's
(logistics service providers) are limited.

Exceptions to the rule

However, there are still opportunities in the sector. An example is
DHL Exel Supply Chain's new contract with the Tata-owned Jaguar-Land
Rover business based in the English Midlands region.

Purchased from Ford by Tata at the beginning of 2008 for £1.15bn,
Jaguar-Land Rover is still dependent on major components from Ford but
has ripped out Ford's production and logistics systems. Faced with the
need to construct a materials management system from scratch, Jaguar-
Land Rover embraced the concept of outsourcing to a lead logistics
supplier. The result is an LSP's dream - a contract for the management
of the entire inbound logistics of three assembly plants at Castle
Bromwich, Halewood and Solihull in the English Midlands.

After competing with NYK Logistics, the LSP which ran inbound
transport at the plants for Ford, DHL Exel Supply Chain won a contract
worth £150m. DHL now manages the 'milk round' that collects
components, consolidates them and then distributes them around the
plants. DHL Exel now even manages the movement of materials within the
Jaguar-Land Rover factories, effectively taking control of 'line-side'
component-feed. That is really most unusual, with only Schenker's role
at the VW plant in Hannover, Germany or Ceva's role within FIAT being
comparable contracts in Europe. Indeed it is DHL Exel Supply Chain's
largest single automotive contract, bigger even than its 'milk round'
contract for BMW in Germany. Paul Dyer, managing director Automotive
UK, observed that: "This contract is unique in the fact that it
encompasses all of our inbound products, i.e. LLP services, UK and EU
collections, in-plant and sequencing, all wrapped up into an
integrated offering".

What this example illustrates is that the prospects for extensive
outsourcing contracts for logistics service providers largely lie at
the periphery of the automotive sector. Either smaller specialist
providers who lack scale or plants in geographically hard to supply
locations are likely to offer prospects for logistics service
providers. Fortunately for logistics service providers, that periphery
is quite dynamic, with many niche players and new entrants such as
Tata.

Car Carriers

Not that all areas of automotive logistics are gloomy. If you want to
make money in automotive logistics there can be few better places than
deepsea car carriers. The demand for inter-continental movement of
vehicles is growing yet there is a limited supply of the sophisticated
ro-ro vessels they operate. Consequently, leading providers such as
NYK and WalleniusWilhelmsen Logistics (WWL) are experiencing a high
level of profitability and a doubling of revenue.

According to WWL, its volume is growing by 7-10% a year, with WWL
moving 2.3m CEUs (car equivalent units) per annum. Indeed, WWL's CEO
Arild Iversen observes that demand is so great that WWL is "stressing
the system" with a potential utilisation rate of 104-5%.

However, those figures hide a murkier reality. The vehicle
manufacturers are supremely aggressive in their pricing and even for a
dedicated automotive logistics service provider such as WWL other
markets are more attractive. For example, 60% of WWL's loads by volume
(CEU) are cars. However, that accounts for 50% of revenue. The really
lucrative and dynamic part of the car carrier market is 'high-heavy'
cargo such as capital equipment vehicles or project cargo such as
boats or equipment for the energy sector.

Of course a company such as WWL is not going to turn away from its
core business of moving cars worldwide but clearly the company's
business has changed from 10 years ago when 70%-80% of it was cars. So
even in a sector as apparently automotive-dedicated and as profitable
as car carriers, players are gradually diversifying away from reliance
on the big vehicle manufacturers. Indeed, WWL's experience with its
disastrous investment in the French logistics company Groupe CAT -
where Renault played one WWL shareholder off against another - only
illustrates the difficulty of doing business with the big vehicle
manufacturers.

Yet the very international nature of WWL assures it and the other big
car carriers a rewarding position in the automotive sector. Within the
past few years, the profile of the global automotive market has been
transformed. Russia has the potential to be a larger market than
Germany, whilst China could be as large a market as the US within a
decade. The location of assembly plants has also changed, with plants
designed to serve markets in Europe opening in Turkey and North
Africa, whilst some China-located production is being exported
worldwide. So the continuing complexity of finished vehicle movements
means that demand for car carriers will continue to be reasonable, if
hard to predict. If, as WWL's Iverson insists, "the Indians and
Africans have the right to have cars as well", growth is set to be
long-term.

However, the final element in the uncertain future of automotive
logistics remains the production technology of vehicles. Until
recently, the 'metal bashing' methods of producing cars had not
changed much in several decades. However, the pace of innovation in
automotive engineering is increasing amazingly quickly, forced by the
demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles.

That is likely to have big impact on supply chains. The increasing
dominance of electronics, in particular, is likely to drag automotive
production away from its 'local-for-local' model towards more global
sourcing. Greater use of polymers and technologies such as batteries
will do likewise. That must be viewed as a major opportunity for large
LSPs to replicate the market penetration that they have achieved in
sectors such as consumer electronics, for example, with the growth of
their freight forwarding businesses.

> mercure wrote:
>> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
>> autant attaquer?
>
> Parce qu'en temps de disette, on peut toujours reporter de 18 mois
> l'achat d'une nouvelle voiture (sauf a avoir casse l'ancienne et
> avoir survecu, mais ca reste marginal).

vi, les primettes dont on a usée pendant des années ont mis à la casse
des tas de vehicules qui auraient pu rouler encore longtemps

il y a un age d or pour les vehicules durable : ces sont pas mal de
modeles du debut des annees '90 voire toute fin '80

déjà relativement économe, beneficiant des nouveaux aciers et
traitements (ils ne rouillent plus même en couchant dehors) , durable
(y avait la bataille des années de garantie initié par les japonais) et
pas encore toute la sophistication (electronique, injections
compliquées) qui fait exploser les couts d'entretient des vehicules
plus récents

sans accidents , ces vehicules sont quasi immmortels ;-)

fabriqués souvent sur des durées plus longues en tres grosses séries ,
ils resteront pourvus en piece detachées pas trop chères pendant de
nombreuses années




les constructeurs se sont évidemment rapidement rendu compte que ça
n'allait pas et ont multiplié les garanties et les sources de pannes,
rendant hasardeux de se passer d eux pour les revisions et suivis apres
l achat

en 1992 n on pouvait acheter une golf ou une audi ou une peugeot et
rouler avec sans plus jamais revenir vers le reseau du vendeur , sans
risquer de devoir repayer la moitié du vehicule en cas de defaut de
bidules electroniques



--
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http://www.plastikabul.fr

jerome balti wrote:
>> mercure wrote:
>>> Est ce que quelqu'un suit le secteur automobile? Pourquoi se fait il
>>> autant attaquer?
>>
>> Parce qu'en temps de disette, on peut toujours reporter de 18 mois
>> l'achat d'une nouvelle voiture (sauf a avoir casse l'ancienne et
>> avoir survecu, mais ca reste marginal).
>
> vi, les primettes dont on a usée pendant des années ont mis à la casse
> des tas de vehicules qui auraient pu rouler encore longtemps
>
> il y a un age d or pour les vehicules durable : ces sont pas mal de
> modeles du debut des annees '90 voire toute fin '80
>
> déjà relativement économe, beneficiant des nouveaux aciers et
> traitements (ils ne rouillent plus même en couchant dehors) , durable
> (y avait la bataille des années de garantie initié par les japonais)
> et pas encore toute la sophistication (electronique, injections
> compliquées) qui fait exploser les couts d'entretient des vehicules
> plus récents
>
> sans accidents , ces vehicules sont quasi immmortels ;-)

De vrais tanks, ça dure aussi longtemps qu'une tondeuse à cheveux

> fabriqués souvent sur des durées plus longues en tres grosses séries ,
> ils resteront pourvus en piece detachées pas trop chères pendant de
> nombreuses années

> les constructeurs se sont évidemment rapidement rendu compte que ça
> n'allait pas et ont multiplié les garanties et les sources de pannes,
> rendant hasardeux de se passer d eux pour les revisions et suivis
> apres l achat
>
> en 1992 n on pouvait acheter une golf ou une audi ou une peugeot et
> rouler avec sans plus jamais revenir vers le reseau du vendeur , sans
> risquer de devoir repayer la moitié du vehicule en cas de defaut de
> bidules electroniques
--
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parrainage dubus 10 ordres gratuits www.ordres-gratuits.info
appartement à vendre à roanne 51m² 45000 euros
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>> sans accidents , ces vehicules sont quasi immmortels ;-)
>
> De vrais tanks, ça dure aussi longtemps qu'une tondeuse à cheveux
>

en fait je connais bien , j ai une golf de 92, j ai constaté qu elle
ne voulait pas mourir !! , passé les 200.000 bornes alors qu il n y
avait aucun probleme a part des petites bosses de ci de là, évidemment
, j ai décidé de la garder jusqu au bout

elle approche des 400.000 et je n ai changé aucune grosse piece et il n
y a pas d usure mecanique

si on roule à 90 la conso n est pas mauvaise en fait

en diesel elle accepte meme n importe quoi comme carburant (injecteurs
pas compliqué)

ce qui m epate le plus c est que les sieges (une sorte de velours
costaud) ne sont meme pas usés

j espere qu elle tiendra jusqu a l apparition d un vehicule electrique
abordable et correct

--
BD en ligne
http://www.plastikabul.fr

> elle approche des 400.000 et je n ai changé aucune grosse piece et il n y a
> pas d usure mecanique

je veux dire il n y a pas d usure mecanique perceptible (puissance ,
embrayage etc )


mais ça c est pas specifique , ex les peugeot d avant la 205 tombaient
en miettes de rouille bien avant leurs 200.000 km (on en voit plus
beaucoup d ailleurs) alors que les moteurs étaient à peine rodés ;-)

--
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http://www.plastikabul.fr