Quelques faits:
1. il y a eu un changement de roi en janvier 2006
2. depuis une loie est prevu pour permettre aux compagnies petrolieres
occidentales d'extraire au koweit.

peut etre que cette nouvelle loie est le resultat d'un changement de
politique du au nouveau roi? ou suite a d'autres infos?

voici un autre commentaire pris sur un forum.
fiabilite de l'info: aucune idee

According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Kuwait's internal
calculation of oil reserves are half of what has been generally
reported. The news came out Friday evening, so we'll see how markets
react Monday. There are some qualifiers here, as categories (proven.
probable, unproven) were not defined. It may be that the unproven
totals were not included in the internal report

Une reponse:

This is no surprise to those who have been watching the energy picture
closely for the past 40 years or to those in the industry.

During the oil glut of the '80s and '90s, the production quota of each
OPEC member was determined by proportionately comparing its published
reserves against those of the other OPEC members. Over a decade,
cash-hungry oil producing countries shamelessly tried to outdo each
other in inflating their published reserves in order to to get their
quotas increased. (Then most of them cheated by producing over their
quotas as well).

So stated reserves of countries like Kuwait doubled or tripled even
though there were little to no new oilfield discoveries. This was true
of Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia as well.

The real earthquake will come when Saudi Arabia admits that its
reserves are overstated and that expected future production is wildly
overoptimistic. I think that will happen later this year.

L'autre option est que la nouvelle publication des reserves est un
moyen de pression sur le parlement koweitien pour permettre l'acces des
compagnies occidentales. Alors que les reserves n'ont pas changees!

Vu que les US ont envahis le koweit en 90, je pense qu'ils ont une tres
bonnes idees des reserves.
Ils ont des bases militaires en arabie saoudite et en iraq.
ils ont ete capable de scanner le sol sous couvert militaire de
l'ensemble du golfe persique excepte l'Iran

bref, je doute de la validite du nouveau rapport sur les reserves, non?

market analyst wrote:
> Quelques faits:
> 1. il y a eu un changement de roi en janvier 2006
> 2. depuis une loie est prevu pour permettre aux compagnies petrolieres
> occidentales d'extraire au koweit.
>
> peut etre que cette nouvelle loie est le resultat d'un changement de
> politique du au nouveau roi? ou suite a d'autres infos?
>
> voici un autre commentaire pris sur un forum.
> fiabilite de l'info: aucune idee
>
> According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Kuwait's internal
> calculation of oil reserves are half of what has been generally
> reported. The news came out Friday evening, so we'll see how markets
> react Monday. There are some qualifiers here, as categories (proven.
> probable, unproven) were not defined. It may be that the unproven
> totals were not included in the internal report
>
> Une reponse:
>
> This is no surprise to those who have been watching the energy picture
> closely for the past 40 years or to those in the industry.
>
> During the oil glut of the '80s and '90s, the production quota of each
> OPEC member was determined by proportionately comparing its published
> reserves against those of the other OPEC members. Over a decade,
> cash-hungry oil producing countries shamelessly tried to outdo each
> other in inflating their published reserves in order to to get their
> quotas increased. (Then most of them cheated by producing over their
> quotas as well).
>
> So stated reserves of countries like Kuwait doubled or tripled even
> though there were little to no new oilfield discoveries. This was true
> of Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia as well.
>
> The real earthquake will come when Saudi Arabia admits that its
> reserves are overstated and that expected future production is wildly
> overoptimistic. I think that will happen later this year.
>
Il y a déjà un moment que les spécialistes annoncent que les réserves du
moyen-orient ne sont pas éternelles. Le gros potentiel du futur semble
se trouver du côté de la Sibérie et de l'Asie centrale (ce qui explique
pourquoi les Américains s'excitent politiquement dans ces régions sous
prétexte de "promouvoir la démocratie", et aussi pourquoi certains fonds
basés sur la Russie ont fait 200% en trois ans).

Like in trading, follow the big hand. In our case, the US government is
the biggest hand in the market. It is the world biggest consumer and
has acces to information that is not available for other countries or
the public due to its military presence in the gulf.

People are talking about oil shortage but people have only limited
information compares to the big hand. if the US did not develop new
economy plan for oil shortage, then the oil peak arguments are not very
strong.